PROJECT STORY
The challenge
Assessing manpower trends in HK’s construction industry over next five years is crucial, as local construction expenditure is set to grow at 2% CAGR.
Manpower Planning for Construction
Forecasting the demand for and supply of construction manpower, from professionals to workers
The solution
By conducting extensive data analysis and advanced modeling, Arcadis has projected there will be a 15–20% construction manpower shortage in HK by 2027.
The impact
Arcadis’ forecast helped in formulating strategies, such as injecting additional funds and promoting innovative technologies, to address the shortage.
HKD$1 billion
Funding to Construction Industry Council.
Launching a Collaborative Training & Upskilling Programme for Construction Workers
Launching a Collaborative Training & Upskilling Programme for Construction Workers
HKD$75 million
Allocated to Studies on Advanced Construction Technologies.
To Establish R&D Institute, Advanced Construction Industrial Building and to Strengthen the MiC Supply Chain
To Establish R&D Institute, Advanced Construction Industrial Building and to Strengthen the MiC Supply Chain
HKD$107 million
Injected to Vocational Training Council and other Institutes.
Expand the source of manpower supply to cope with future increased manpower demand
Expand the source of manpower supply to cope with future increased manpower demand
The challenge
The construction industry is one of the pillars of Hong Kong’s economy and with the industry’s annual expenditure anticipated to grow beyond HK$300 billion by 2030 as well as ageing workforce, there is concern whether the manpower resources can meet the increasing construction volume and changing skill requirements.
This led the Construction Industry Council (CIC) to seek Arcadis’ help in developing advanced forecasting models to provide reliable manpower demand and supply forecasts in construction.
The solution
Arcadis undertook extensive data analysis and developed advanced models to forecast the construction manpower demand and supply. To strengthen the reliability and robustness of the forecast, the model took advantage of available key data sets, including daily attendance records of over 200,000 registered construction workers, contract sums and associated types of asset class, construction expenditure forecast in various sub-sectors, demographic information from CIC and professional institutions, as well as training records from training and educational institutions. The model is also calibrated via information collected from industry surveys and close engagement with key stakeholders to best capture the market perspectives.
With the vast sources of data, the advanced model was able to forecast the manpower demand and supply at both the individual discipline and industry levels. Arcadis forecasted that a shortage of 40,000 workers, 6,500 professionals, and 8,500 technicians and site supervisory personnel is expected by 2027, representing 15-20% shortage of manpower in construction.
Our study has successfully quantified the magnitude of the manpower shortage situation in the construction industry up to 2027, which is crucial for both industry stakeholders and policymakers. We will work continuously with our clients to devise better ways to build our future.
The impact
The forecast provides essential market insights in helping the Government and industry stakeholders be informed of the manpower outlook against the backdrop of growing expenditure and assist them in developing solutions to address the expected shortage. The recommendations from Arcadis include wider adoption of offsite construction, introduce training collaboration programmes and increase land supply to build capacity for offsite construction. In the recently published Budget 2023, the government has announced the injection of about $100M into supporting trainees in the construction industry through a two year pilot scheme and $7M to launch a First-hire-then-train scheme with the Hong Kong Institute of Construction for construction safety officers. Furthermore, the government has announced the establishment of an Advanced Construction Industrial Building for offsite construction methods e.g. prefabricated rebar and MiMEP to alleviate the manpower shortage. Finally, our developed model was capable of taking in additional data that will be generated over time, which would allow it to analyze the sensitivity for market changes in the future.
Used capabilities
