The Future of Climate is Heating Up

Extreme heat is not a distant issue; we see and feel its impact in our everyday lives as temperatures continue to rise. From intensified turbulence and infrastructure breaks - like this summer when extreme heat caused the metal of New York’s Third Avenue Bridge to expand, leaving it stuck open for hours,⁶ - to its effects on worker productivity and the health of our communities. Globally, it’s the deadliest weather-related hazard, responsible for 489,000 deaths per year since 2000⁷, about 30 times more than tropical cyclones and hurricanes⁸.

Communities that were once resilient to heat are now more vulnerable than ever to its impacts. People at elevated health risk from extreme heat exposure fall into three categories: those with increased exposure, increased biological sensitivity, and/or those who face high socioeconomic burdens. In the U.S., almost one in four people fall into these categories⁹, which include emergency responders, athletes, workers without sufficient cooling, those experiencing homelessness, children and adults over 65, pregnant women, and individuals with chronic health conditions.

This further compounds for people with socioeconomic burdens such as low income or living in a low resource community, as they are often least equipped financially and infrastructurally to cope with heat increases. And as temperatures rise and extreme heat events increase in frequency and intensity, even the healthiest of populations will face risk of direct heat related illness. It will impact everyone.

Urban environments are at the epicenter, amplifying this crisis.

The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect causes cities to be significantly hotter than surrounding and rural areas, as heat-absorbing surfaces like pavement and buildings trap and radiate warmth, a phenomenon that intensifies during heatwaves. Extreme heat events can also increase the amount of heat dispersion from buildings to the urban environment by up to 20%, largely in the form of heat waste from air conditioning ¹¹. This makes it critical for urban planners, real estate developers and governments to consider energy efficient and green infrastructure solutions supported by holistic, long-term capital planning and strategies.

Heating Up: Supply Chains and Productivity

Beyond its impact on communities, extreme heat will increasingly disrupt integrated global supply chains and economies. While physical climate hazards like floods, wildfires and sea level rise pose significant risks to business operations, heat stress threatens a large portion of assets across all sectors globally. A recent Moody’s ESG solutions report identified utilities and manufacturing as most at risk, followed closely by transportation and warehousing, which face high exposure to this very real, growing challenge¹².

Extreme heat resilience in action: In Australia, Arcadis is using modeling tools to assess how heat affects road longevity and integrate this data into the early stages of infrastructure design. This analyzes the albedo effect, which measures how much heat is reflected by impervious surfaces like roofs and roads, and can be a key factor in creating more resilient infrastructure to withstand the effects of rising temperatures. 

Extreme heat resilience in action: Cities like Washington D.C. are taking the lead with ‘cool corridors’ aimed at providing shaded walkways and cooling zones for vulnerable populations. These corridors serve those most at risk, such as the elderly and those without access to air conditioning, but they also provide a blueprint for cities around the world to follow.

Under the Canopy of Shade – The Power of Passive Cooling and Nature Based Solutions

As we adapt to this new climate reality, air conditioning can save lives. And, while it currently accounts for 7% of the world’s electricity, and nearly 20% of the electricity used in buildings globally¹⁶, many homes in hot countries have yet to install their first air conditioner. Further, sales of lifesaving AC units expected to triple globally by 2050¹⁷.

But it’s a double-edged solution. 2022 estimates indicate that air conditioners and their refrigerants contributed to 3.7% of total GHG emissions¹⁸. Staying cool is making it hotter.

Adaptation cannot rely on energy-intensive mechanical cooling alone. In communities where air conditioning is not an affordable or reliable option extreme heat is even more deadly. Passive cooling, the process and techniques to cool spaces without the use of energy, has the potential to reduce load on air conditioning by as much as 80%¹⁹ and can be key to surviving extreme heat both indoors and out.

Passive cooling solutions often fall under the category of nature-based solutions like blue and green infrastructure. Rain gardens, bioswales, and water features provide natural cooling while enhancing biodiversity and managing stormwater, improving the build environment to directly provide benefits to residents.

Arcadis has also been working with cities like The Hague in the Netherlands to transform public spaces, such as libraries, into cooling centers that also serve as resilience hubs. These spaces are more than just shelters from the heat; they foster community resilience during extreme weather events.

Technological innovation is also key. Tools like Tygron, a mapping software used by Arcadis, create digital twins of cities, enabling planners to identify heat hotspots and design targeted interventions. AI-driven tools continue to advance rapidly and can be effective in predictability and decision-making, such as Google's heat exposure mapping that can help cities model the effects of cool roofs and tree canopies on thermal comfort.

Preparing for a Hotter Future – Where Can You Start?

While we cannot reverse the global rise in temperatures, we can mitigate its impact with proactive, integrated, and innovative strategies. Extreme heat is a global crisis that demands a coordinated response. Governments, businesses, and communities must come together to implement adaptive measures that will not only protect populations but also safeguard economies and critical infrastructure.

The Heat Will Continue – But So Can Our Innovation

As the biggest contributors to its worst effect, is within our power, as cities, businesses and industries, to lessen the impacts of heat. A combination of innovative technologies, data-driven strategies, and community-driven solutions can ensure that our cities remain livable and resilient in the face of this challenge.

The tools, technology, and strategies are at our fingertips. The choice we face is clear: we can either act now to create a future where heat adaptation is embedded into every aspect of urban living, or we can continue to pay the price as temperatures continue to rise. Now is the time to make decisions that will ensure resilience and prosperity for future generations.

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