On 18 June, Switzerland joined the growing list of countries with net-zero targets enshrined in law1. This kind of outcome is exactly what the COP process initiated in 1992 and with the 'ratchet mechanism’ established by the Paris Accord were intended to create. Additionally, the Paris Agreement also introduced the Global Stock take, a progress monitoring mechanism that requires signatories to report their progress every five years. So how are we doing? With 26 countries and the European Union now having legally binding targets, you might think we’re on track to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. But let’s take a closer look.
Reality check
Recent research by Professor Joeri Rogelj2 reveals a significant disparity between the commitments made, actions taken and the urgent need for rapid GHG emissions reduction. When assessing all pledges, Rogelj’s team found an expected warming of 1.7 degrees. However, when focusing on only the most credible pledges – i.e., those with actively implemented policies - the expected warming rose to 2.6 degrees. That’s a concerning gap.
The discrepancy
For the past 30 years, COP has been a rallying point for countries to commit to decarbonization. Representatives from diverse sectors consult with climate scientists to determine the necessary actions to fight climate change. These discussions culminate in international agreements that gradually propel us toward the scientific path. It’s been a collective effort, and countless commitments have been made.
But here’s the problem: when these representatives return home, they often face roadblocks in translating global agreements into local policies and actions. Despite their best intentions, regional government leaders often struggle due to limited knowledge, limited tools, or lack of financing. As Professor Rogelj noted, our pledges already total 1.7 degrees, so our problem is not goals – it’s translating pledges into policy and deployment on the ground.
Bridging the gap
To have a COP focused on closing the gap between pledges and action, the COP process will need to change. We can’t keep getting mired in deliberations over a single document that requires unanimous agreement. It’s time to shift the focus toward driving tangible results.
The first step would be changing the diplomatic negotiations from closed-door affairs into inclusive workshops involving the subject matter experts (SMEs) who can drive practical advancements. Let’s bring in the think tanks that can offer policy templates and case studies to expedite national policy writing. Let’s workshop regional master plans with the companies who can (and already are) building the technology to take us to net zero. And let’s bring in the activists to plan with political leaders how to land the messages and cultural change needed at home so their citizens understand how they can help.
Although we’ve seen increasing participation from these parties at COPs, these meetings often take a backseat to the main event. We need diplomats to prioritize time spent with SMEs in smaller, topic-focused working groups with an expectation they generate the policy templates, action guides, and financial/technological models that can be translated into localized decarbonization strategies.
The crucial role of businesses
Businesses have an opportunity to be pivotal in this change. As drivers of net-zero innovation, they can provide invaluable advice for governments on realistic and expedited clean technology deployment. They can also provide expert insights into de-risking investments to attract private finance and engaging key stakeholders in economy-wide transformations. Companies like Arcadis, with operations across multiple countries, have valuable expertise in capturing best practices from different geographies.
It’s a two-way street, though. While businesses share their insights with legislators, they must also listen to the priorities and challenges voiced by government officials. It is incumbent on business to take a collaborative approach that enables proactive planning, organizational alignment, and adapted operations that solve the gaps.
Promising strides
The good news is that innovation and success in the policy arena is coming fast. Take the structure and the huge investments of the Inflation Reduction Act, the European Green Deal, or the Swiss referendum. This last one is notable; in that it contains the first example of a government requiring businesses in its borders to achieve net zero emissions by 20503.
Imagine if the public and private sector teams that crafted these wins spent the next COP showing other countries how to write and pass similar legislation successfully. If COP turned from a consensus-based process focused on setting further targets, to a gathering structurally set up to drive action on promises already made, we might just get the pace of change we need to see.
1 https://apnews.com/article/switzerland-climate-referendum-glaciers-e56bc08b1de2f9e3f050847bb96ccf44
2 https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-what-credible-climate-pledges-mean-for-future-global-warming/
